Average gas price in the usa

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes monthly data for the supply and disposition of natural gas in the United States in the Natural Gas Monthly (NGM). The information in this Appendix is provided to assist users in evaluating the monthly data. There is a brief description of what data are estimated and what data are taken from submitted reports, followed by ten technical notes that provide important information for individual data series.

The monthly data are preliminary when initially published. Data shown in this report for the most current months are taken from the EIA Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) model computations. Each month, EIA staff review the STIFS model estimates and adjust them, if necessary, based on their knowledge of new developments in the natural gas industry. Data for prior months are estimated or taken from submitted reports.

For data that are not taken from STIFS computations, Table Al below lists the methodologies for deriving the monthly data to be published.

The STIFS model contains a series of calculations that produce forecasts for all of the energy industry. It is driven primarily by three sets of inputs or assumptions: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, arid assumptions about the severity of weather. The natural gas estimates also reflect other key inputs or assumptions including gas wellhead prices, electric power generation by other energy sources, and U.S. gas import capacity. The macroeconomic variable estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. The EIA publishes forecasts for the energy industry each quarter in the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

For production, total supply and disposition, and storage data (Tables 1,2, and 9), the most current two months shown are estimates produced from STIFS computations, and data that are two months or more prior to the date of publication are estimated or taken from submitted reports. For example, in the March issue of the NGM, February and March data are taken from the STIFS model computations while January and prior months data are estimated from available data sources or reported directly on EIA forms. For consumption data by sector (Table 3), the most current three months shown are estimates produced from STIFS computations while data that are three months prior to date of publication are taken from EIA forms.

Note 1. Nonhydrocarbon Gases Removed

Annual Data

Data on nonhydrocarbon gases removed from marketed production -- carbon dioxide, helium, hydrogen sulfide, and nitrogen -- are reported by State agencies on the voluntary Form EIA-895. Eleven of the 33 producing States reported data on nonhydrocarbon gases removed during 1999. These 11 States accounted for 45 percent of total 1999 gross withdrawals. The State of Missouri reported zero gross withdrawals.

Preliminary Monthly Data

All monthly data are considered preliminary until after publication of the Natural Gas Annual for the year in which the report month falls. States reporting monthly data on nonhydrocarbon gases removed are estimated based on annual data reported on Form ETA-895. States' nonhydrocarbon gases as an annual percentage of gross withdrawals reported is applied to each State's monthly gross withdrawal data to produce an estimate of nonhydrocarbon gases removed.

Final Monthly Data

Beginning with report year 1990, States filing the Form ETA-627, "Annual Quantity and Value of Natural Gas Report," were asked to supply monthly breakdowns of all data previously reported on an annual basis. The sums of the reported figures were used to calculate monthly volumes. In 1997 the Form ETA-627 was discontinued. States were requested to file an annual schedule on the monthly Form ETA-895, "Monthly Quantity and Value of Natural Gas Report."

For States not supplying monthly data on the annual schedule of the ETA-895, final monthly data are calculated by proportionally allocating the differences between total annual data reported on the Form EIA-895 and the sum of monthly data (January-December).

Note 2. Supplemental Gaseous Fuels

Annual Data

Annual data are published from Form EIA-176.

Preliminary Monthly Data

All monthly data are considered preliminary until after the publication of the Natural Gas Annual for the year in which the report month falls. Monthly estimates are based on the annual ratio of supplemental gaseous fuels to the sum of dry gas production, net imports, and net withdrawals from storage. This ratio is applied to the monthly sum of these three elements to compute a monthly supplemental gaseous fuels figure.

Final Monthly Data

Monthly data are revised after publication of the Natural Gas Annual. Final monthly data are estimated based on the revised annual ratio of supplemental gaseous fuels to the sum of dry gas production, net imports, and net withdrawals from storage. This ratio is applied to the revised monthly sum of these three elements to compute final monthly data.

Note 3. Production

Annual Data

Natural gas production data are collected from 33 gas-producing States on Form EIA-895 which includes gross withdrawals, vented and flared, repressuring, nonhydrocarbon gases removed, fuel used on leases, marketed production (wet), and extraction loss. The U.S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) also supplies data on the quantity and value of natural gas production on the Gulf of Mexico and Outer Continental Shelf. No adjustments are made to the data.

Estimated Monthly Data

State marketed production data for a particular month are estimated if data are unavailable at the time of publication. The data are estimated based on final monthly data reported on the Form EIA-895 for the previous year.

Estimates for total U.S. marketed production are based on final monthly data reported on the Form EIA-895 for the previous year. State estimates for nonhydrocarbon gas removed, gas used for repressuring, and gas vented and flared are based on the ratio of the item to gross withdrawals as reported on the EIA-895. These ratios are applied to the month's estimates for gross withdrawals to calculate figures for nonhydrocarbon gases removed, gas used for repressuring, and gas vented and flared. Estimates for gross withdrawal data are calculated from final monthly data filed on Form EIA-895 for the previous year.

Preliminary Monthly Data

All monthly data are considered preliminary until after publication of the Natural Gas Annual for the year in which the report month falls. Preliminary monthly data are published from reports from the Form EIA-895 and the MMS. Volumetric data are converted, as necessary, to a standard 14.73 psia pressure base. Data are revised as Table 7 monthly data are updated.

Final Monthly Data

Final monthly data are the sums of monthly data reported on the annual Form EIA-895, "Monthly Quantity and Value of Natural Gas Report," annual schedule.

Note 4. Imports and Exports

Annual Data and Final Monthly Data

Annual and final monthly data are published from the Office of Fossil Energy, U.S. Department of Energy, "Natural Gas Imports and Exports," which requires data to be reported each quarter by month for the calendar year.

Preliminary Monthly Data - Imports

Preliminary monthly import data are based on data from the National Energy Board of Canada and responses to informal industry contacts and EIA estimates. Preliminary data are revised after the publication of the article "U.S. Imports and Exports of Natural Gas" for the calendar year.

Preliminary Monthly Data - Exports

Preliminary monthly export data are based on historical data from the Office of Fossil Energy, U.S. Department of Energy, "Natural Gas Imports and Exports," informal industry contacts, and information gathered from natural gas industry trade publications. Preliminary monthly data are revised after publication of "U.S. Imports and Exports of Natural Gas" for the calendar year in which the report month falls.

Note 5. Consumption

All Annual Data

All consumption data except electric utility data are from the Form EIA-857 and Form EIA-176. No adjustments are made to the data. Electric utility data are reported on Form EIA-759.

Monthly Data

All monthly data are considered preliminary until after publication of the Natural Gas Annual.

Total Consumption

Preliminary Monthly Data

The most current month estimate is calculated based on the arithmetic average change from the previous month for the previous 3 years. The following month this estimate is revised by summing the components (pipeline fuel, lease and plant fuel, and deliveries to consumers).

Final Monthly Data

Monthly data are revised after publication of the Natural Gas Annual. Final monthly total consumption is obtained by summing its components.